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Market Data & Analysis

A STRONGER KNOWLEDGE OF THE LOCAL LANDSCAPE


It's here, the most comprehensive real estate market report for the City of Guelph. Prepared in-house, and always with care, to ensure the most complete set of data possible.

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SNAPSHOT OF THE Q2 | 2017 TRILLIUMWEST DATA REPORT

All it took was a little press.

  • A little government intervention, plus PR campaign and voila - we have ourselves a much more tempered market. While measures aimed at slowing down a runaway train were put in place, the slow- down in the Guelph market appears to be more of a by-product of new found supply. Many sellers jumped at the chance for a record sale and headed to market in Q2. Supply gures both Y/Y and Q/Q saw significant and much-needed spikes. Thanks, gov!

Focus on the REAL data

  • In a changing market, tall tales are often told. Don’t get fooled by poor interpretation, or even worse, bad data. The simple facts are: days on market is still single digits, house prices continued to climb and supply is healthily increasing. All of this points to what makes Guelph such a wonderful city to live, raise a family & invest in - balance.

+35%

  • Y/Y increase in median list price in South Guelph. The highest in the city as sellers cash in on the heat.

+35%

  • Y/Y increase in median sale price in West Guelph. The highest in the city and sellers certainly did cash in.

+6%

  • The gap between detached and attached home median sale price in Downtown Guelph. The lowest in town.

+45%

  • Y/Y increase in North Guelph new inventory. With price jumps like these, more sellers look to jump in.

-1%

  • Q/Q decrease in median sale price in East Guelph. The only decrease in the city. Hmm.

-33%

  • Q/Q decrease in West Guelph sales to new listing ratio. That’s a pretty big leap in 3 months.

-28%

  • Y/Y decrease in the number of new sales in West Guelph. And the crazy part? - Finally increased supply.

-11%

  • Q/Q decrease in the Downtown sales/new listing ratio. The lowest in Guelph as temps cool all across town.

SOUTH GUELPH REVIEW

  • Q2 South of the River always experiences a period of adjustment. The transition from a fevered student investment season to a more calculated family buying period, is as predictable as the beautiful spring weather - it always arrives on time. Even with the unprecedented flurry of Q1 activity, this year was no real exception. There was no expectation of dramatic change this spring season, and the South Guelph market responded as predicted: very well.

  • The Y/Y sales volume was down slightly (9.3%), mostly buoyed by many buyers hitting the market a little earlier this year. The most positive signs in Q2 are both supply (up 32.6% Y/Y) and the sale/new listing ratio down to a much more sustain- able 0.66. Families can welcome back a market with selection and make less-hurried decisions. We like it. A lot.

DOWNTOWN GUELPH REVIEW

  • Downtown Guelph is the only sub-section of the city that actually experienced a decline in the volume of new listings. As mentioned in the Q1 report, the core of the city has been far less impacted by the so called GTA-effect that blew up our market for the past several months. Fresh listings to the market remained tight, and median sale prices grew to an all-time high. Through the chaos of the past few months, the Downtown market has maintained its course and the sales-to-new- listing ratio is now the highest in the city.

  • We can't help but watch closely as the gap between detached and attached homes continues to shrink. A mere 6% gap in median sale price between the two types of housing is drawing more and more families back to the centre of the city. Our advice to many families? There is opportunity in the most stable and less-volatile Downtown Guelph market right now.

EAST GUELPH REVIEW

  • Well isn’t this refreshing to see? After many successive quarters, East Guelph nally came up for air and provided dis- heartened buyers a chance to get excited again. The inventory was almost double that of Q1 (increasing 82.6%) and rose signi cantly (17.1% Y/Y). A slight drop in Y/Y sales volume provided much needed relief in an area that had seen sales-to- new-listing ratios consistently exceeding 1.0.

  • So, is East Guelph due for a downturn? The numbers all say... not likely. Although the 1.2% decrease in Q/Q median sale price is something to watch, the median list price continues to soar and the median sale price is still 106% that of the median list price. Let’s say East Guelph has cooled down from a rolling boil, but it’s still a very hot simmer.

WEST GUELPH REVIEW

  • Fresh on the heels of the biggest Y/Y increase in Guelph recorded history in Q1 (46.5%), West Guelph got exactly what it needed - a dose of reality. The simply unsustainable and unhealthy growth gures of the past year appear to be behind us. The 5.5% Q/Q median list sale price and 0.9% Q/Q median sale price increases are far more in-line with what we have come to expect on the West-side.

  • Despite the lowest sale to new listing ratio in the city, prices continue to climb. Detached homes are seeing the greatest impact, with the detached median sale price of $593,192 a remarkable 34.2% higher than a year ago. Buyers had more options, but sellers were still getting their number. We will see if that trend continues into an always slower Q3.

NORTH GUELPH REVIEW

  • We finally topped that elusive new listing mark for a quarter of 100. North Guelph welcomed an 87.9% Q/Q and 45.3% Y/Y increase in homes hitting the market in Q2. Buyer response to this unusual turn in supply was tempered. While prices continued to increase, sales volume didn’t keep pace with demand. While the sales-to-new-listing ratio still favours sell- ers, we can say that, for the rst time in a very long time, it’s getting better for buyers in North Guelph.

  • The question in the North-end circulates more around sustainability of sale prices, rather than demand. Typically known for a ordability, detached homes are about to crest the 500k mark, town/link homes are amongst the most expensive in the city and apartment/condos are the highest in Guelph by 7.5%. Don’t worry, we will be watching these numbers.

  • Download the complete Q2 | 2017 Data Report here


UNDERSTANDING THE CALCULATIONS

Sales to new listing ratio

A real estate market never heads in just one direction. Several key factors can drastically influence the direction of the market including mortgage interest rates, employment levels/growth, investment growth, immigration and development. Separately, or in conjunction with one another, they can influence whether we are it is a buyer’s market or a seller’s market.

A buyer’s market exists when there significantly more homes for sale than there are buyers. The typical end results a drop in median sale prices over time as home owners adjust their expectations to the current market conditions.

A sellers market typically exists when interest rates are low are there are plenty of qualified buyers and not as many homes for sale. Buyers must react quickly and often face multiple offer situations. Prices generally rise under these circumstances.

To appropriately measure market activity, TrilliumWest uses the Sales/New Listing Ratio. The primary purpose of this ratio is to measure the balance between market supply and demand.

  • a ratio between .40-.60 is considered a seller's market
  • a ratio of less than .40 is considered to be a buyer's market

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