- Market Data & Analysis
It's here, the most comprehensive real estate market report for the City of Guelph. Prepared in-house, and always with care, to ensure the most complete set of data possible.
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So... are we back?
We get this question every day. This answer is... we are on our way. Q2 of 2017 wasn’t the beginning of the real estate consumption insanity in Guelph, but it was likely the most impactful - the train just kept on rolling on an unexpected track. A year later, portions of the city appear to have fully recovered, while other areas still have work to do.
Remember - to fully understand the market we must focus on trends, not individual sales. Across the city we are trending in a much better direction. A city-wide Y/Y decrease in the detached median sale price of just 1.2% says we have come a long way back. The reliable stability we have come to expect from the Guelph market appears to be on the horizon.
Stick with the plan your Realtor helps you to create. Understanding the market means more than ever.
SOUTH GUELPH REVIEW
If you are confused by what you see in the Q2 South Guelph numbers, it’s more than understandable - they are a little tough to understand. While the remnants of a torrid 2017 are still being felt, if we focus on the Q/Q numbers, things appear to be right back on track on the south-side.
One of the more interesting trends we are watching in South Guelph is the detached home market. Y/Y the inventory remained consistent, however a 39% reduction in sales volume and a 2% drop in median sale price is certainly something to pay attention to.
DOWNTOWN GUELPH REVIEW
The stability train in Downtown Guelph rolled right along into Q2. Measured growth across all data points provided for some shared opportunity for both buyers and sellers.
The detached median sale price, while it continues to climb, is still amongst the lowest in the city. Purchasers looking for smaller footprints should like their options in the city core for the foreseeable future. With new condo and townhome options providing a steady surge of supply, we see the Downtown market staying on track through Q3.
EAST GUELPH REVIEW
We have been discussing it for a year now and East Guelph has finally made its way back to where it was. The insanity of early 2017, and then ensuing rollback in Q’s 3 and 4, took a year to recover from. But alas, we are now seeing the signs of a return to stability and consistency in a market known for just that.
The only seemingly unaffected sub-market in East Guelph has been townhomes, with the highest median sale price in the city. Strange? We say, um not really. With such a large percentage of East Guelph town and link homes being freehold when compared to the rest of the city, that adds a significant boost to resale home prices.
WEST GUELPH REVIEW
Typically an area of model consistency, since early 2017 West Guelph has been on a trip. Extremes were felt on both ends of the thermometer, but Q2 felt like that tumultuous ride might be coming to a close. According to the data, that is exactly what happened.
While inventory shortages still plague this part of the city, prices were only moderately affected Y/Y. While still down from the same period a year ago, the past few Q’s have seen that gap close rapidly. A 5.6% Q/Q increase in Q2 alone helped close the gap even further. The numbers say this roller coaster ride on the West-side might be coming to a close.
NORTH GUELPH REVIEW
If we filter through our previous reports, we really shouldn’t be surprised with the final Q2 data from North Guelph. When prices began to uncontrollably soar in 2017, the North-side was the slowest to react. As prices fell across the city and have since started to recover, North Guelph has also been the slowest to return to a more predictable level. The highest sales/new listing ratio in the city suggests that demand is high, things just take a
little longer to adjust compared with other parts of the city.
Some fresh new home supply has arrived, that should help to feed some of the demand, but we also see prices remaining relatively consistent in North Guelph for a little while longer.
Sales to new listing ratio
A real estate market never heads in just one direction. Several key factors can drastically influence the direction of the market including mortgage interest rates, employment levels/growth, investment growth, immigration and development. Separately, or in conjunction with one another, they can influence whether we are it is a buyer’s market or a seller’s market.
A buyer’s market exists when there significantly more homes for sale than there are buyers. The typical end results a drop in median sale prices over time as home owners adjust their expectations to the current market conditions.
A sellers market typically exists when interest rates are low are there are plenty of qualified buyers and not as many homes for sale. Buyers must react quickly and often face multiple offer situations. Prices generally rise under these circumstances.
To appropriately measure market activity, TrilliumWest uses the Sales/New Listing Ratio. The primary purpose of this ratio is to measure the balance between market supply and demand.