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Market Data & Analysis

A STRONGER KNOWLEDGE OF THE LOCAL LANDSCAPE


It's here, the most comprehensive real estate market report for the City of Guelph. Prepared in-house, and always with care, to ensure the most complete set of data possible.

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SNAPSHOT OF THE Q1 | 2018 TRILLIUMWEST DATA REPORT

Have we been here before?

  • It was an up and down ride to get here, but in Q1 the Guelph market did what it always seems to do - stabilize. The median detached sale price rose slightly Q/Q to end at a remarkably even decrease of only 0.4% Y/Y. This time around, the 0.65 sale to new listing ratio suggests that more stability is on the horizon through the busy spring market season.

Do student rentals still work?

  • We asked this question in Q4, we answer it now after a more tempered than usual student investment season. South Guelph sale prices and attainable rental rates have not gone up in unison, making it difficult to find cash flow positive properties. The investment landscape in Guelph has changed, Read this on our blog, and many investors sat on the sidelines through Q1. It was a much more patient investment season.

+84%

  • Q/Q increase in South Guelph new inventory. The effect of an early and active spring market.

+8%

  • Q/Q increase in the East Guelph median sale price. While still room to go, the climb back up continues.

+12%

  • Q/Q increase in North Guelph detached median sale price. The price gap at the top of the city has closed.

+9%

  • Y/Y increase in median sale price Downtown Guelph. The condo market leads the charge in the city core.

-9%

  • Y/Y decrease in the West Guelph median sale price. The road back to all-time highs will take a little longer.

-31%

  • Y/Y decrease in South Guelph sales to new listing ratio. Will South-side sellers adjust heading into Q2?

-3%

  • Y/Y decrease in North Guelph median list price. Sellers adjusted and median sale price was 1% over list.

-20%

  • Y/Y decrease in Downtown Guelph new inventory. Detached, towns & condos all saw reduced numbers.

SOUTH GUELPH REVIEW

  • Q1 is typically a period of double-digit growth on the South side of Guelph, however in 2018 that was not the case. The combination of the after party of the 2017 market and more restrictive new lending policies, certainly tempered the most active market in the city. The usually very rapid student investment market moved at a more calculated pace in Q1. An almost on-par Y/Y median sale price says we stayed the course of last year’s monster gains. If look back to the 2016 Q1 figures, we still experienced 34% growth over a two year period in South Guelph. A nice and necessary soft landing to keep your focus on the longer term numbers, not the short.

DOWNTOWN GUELPH REVIEW

  • As we have been saying for several Q’s now, Downtown Guelph continues to avoid the volatility of more peripheral corners of the city. The modest Q/Q and Y/Y median sale price gains continued into Q1. The 9% Y/Y increase was the highest in the city, and was largely driven by a 33.8% Y/Y increase in median sale price of Downtown condos. As new entries to the Downtown condo market continue to push limits in the coming Q’s, we only see this factor continuing.

  • While volume of sales and new listings decreased both Y/Y and Q/Q, stability remains the name of the game Downtown. As the volume of listings increase with warmer weather, look for a robust Q2 in the city core.

EAST GUELPH REVIEW

  • After 5 consecutive Q’s of insanity, the roller coaster ride in East Guelph might finally be over. A lack of new construction and a seemingly endless parade of value-seeking GTA’ers, caused a lot of confusion in the 2017 East Guelph market. It peaked in Q3 of last year, rolled back 12.5% in Q4 and continues to work its way back.

  • While we are still 6.4% away from the median sale price high-water mark of $499,900 (Q3 2017), town/link homes are helping the charge back to that number with an all-time high median sale price of $460,000 in Q1. Detached homes are still almost 15% lower than just two Q’s ago. A number we will be watching very carefully headed into Q2.

WEST GUELPH REVIEW

  • Q1 was another consecutive quarter littered with downward arrows. Certainly doesn’t look pretty, but what do the numbers really say? One of the major signs of a market in decline is an increase in inventory and a subsequent decrease in sales volume. Fortunately, that is not what is happening in West Guelph. The number of new listings and the number of sales are moving in relative unison and the tell-tale sales to new listing ratio still sits at a very high 0.8, the highest in the city. The 35% Y/Y increases of Q2 2017 were neither healthy or sustainable.

  • We say the storm is over and the West Guelph market will enjoy a healthy family buying season during Q2.

NORTH GUELPH REVIEW

  • For the past few years we have been pushing the value to be found in North Guelph. The large price gaps with other areas of the city have not only closed, in some cases portions of the North Guelph market have become amongst the most expensive in town. Apartment/condos are the 2nd priciest in Guelph, while the detached homes prices are hard on the heels of East Guelph for 2nd most expensive in town.

  • So will this new trend in the North continue? With a full slate of impressive new homes on the way in Q2, we say yes. Expect the North to be a leading star in Q2.

  • Download the complete Q1 | 2018 Data Report here


UNDERSTANDING THE CALCULATIONS

Sales to new listing ratio

A real estate market never heads in just one direction. Several key factors can drastically influence the direction of the market including mortgage interest rates, employment levels/growth, investment growth, immigration and development. Separately, or in conjunction with one another, they can influence whether we are it is a buyer’s market or a seller’s market.

A buyer’s market exists when there significantly more homes for sale than there are buyers. The typical end results a drop in median sale prices over time as home owners adjust their expectations to the current market conditions.

A sellers market typically exists when interest rates are low are there are plenty of qualified buyers and not as many homes for sale. Buyers must react quickly and often face multiple offer situations. Prices generally rise under these circumstances.

To appropriately measure market activity, TrilliumWest uses the Sales/New Listing Ratio. The primary purpose of this ratio is to measure the balance between market supply and demand.

  • a ratio between .40-.60 is considered a seller's market
  • a ratio of less than .40 is considered to be a buyer's market

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