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Market Data & Analysis

A STRONGER KNOWLEDGE OF THE LOCAL LANDSCAPE


It's here, the most comprehensive real estate market report for the City of Guelph. Prepared in-house, and always with care, to ensure the most complete set of data possible.

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SNAPSHOT OF THE Q3 | 2017 TRILLIUMWEST DATA REPORT

Ok, so where are we now?

  • The insane growth of the spring market we all knew was unsustainable. It caused significant reductions across all areas of town and in all housing types in Q3. But houses did continue to sell. The substantial gains over the previous 3 quarters were more than enough to post positive Y/Y sales figures across the city. The answer - some short-term loss, and long-term gains.

Better get your price right

  • In a corrected market, over-pricing your home simply will not pass the test with buyers. They have more options and patience than just a few months ago and an increasing days on market will only serve to hurt sellers who don’t listen to the market correctly. Talk to your Realtor and come up with the right game plan to get the job done properly in a much different market.

+35%

  • Y/Y increase in median list price in South Guelph. The highest in the city as sellers cash in on the heat.

+4%

  • Y/Y increase in median sale price in North Guelph. The lowest in the city and perhaps an area to find value.

+25%

  • Y/Y increase in median sale price in East Guelph. The highest in the city and still room to grow?

+51%

  • Y/Y increase in the number of new inventory in South Guelph. More sellers try to cash in.

-43%

  • Y/Y decrease in the South Guelph sales/new listing ratio. Supply up + sales down = the biggest drop in town.

-11%

  • Q/Q decrease in North Guelph median sale price. A big drop for a typically stable area of the city.

-22%

  • Y/Y decrease in the number of new inventory in Downtown. The condo boom of a year ago is realized.

-28%

  • Y/Y decrease in the West Guelph sales/new listing ratio. A significant shift towards more balance.

SOUTH GUELPH REVIEW

  • Let’s start by mentioning South Guelph has historically odd Q3’s. Keeping time with the school calendar, the bulk of families make their big move within Q2. We typically see a Q/Q slowdown, but never really a letdown. Q3 of 2017 saw a bit of both.

  • Oddly enough, detached homes saw a rollback of 9.3% from Q2, while both town homes and condos saw modest increases Q/Q. If we focus on the Y/Y figures, detached homes were up 10.7%, town homes up 18.9%, and apartment/condo up 15.5%. Historically, these are keeping in step with recent Y/Y Q3 gains in South Guelph.

DOWNTOWN GUELPH REVIEW

  • While pink arrows dominate the numbers, the decreases in both volume of sale and number of new listings adjusted relatively in unison. The mass delivery of new condo product to the market one year ago, certainly provided some expected drop in these figures. It is the Y/Y green arrow which is the most telling of the Downtown market. List prices were up Y/Y and although not commensurately, so were median sale prices. The 6.5% increase is certainly on-point with expectations for a seemingly more stable market in the Downtown core.

  • As the torrid pace of Q2 subsided, Downtown Guelph appears to have weathered the aftermath of the storm fairly well.

EAST GUELPH REVIEW

  • For years now, folks have been heading to East Guelph in search of a price break. New homes were fueling the seemingly endless demand, but for the past year development came to a halt. We predicted that, as supply dwindled, prices were poised to soar. That is exactly what has happened.

  • The typical +/- 15% gap between South and East Guelph median sale prices has vanished. Town homes have seen the greatest parity, with just a 1.5% gap between the two regions. The 25% Y/Y increase in median sale price was by far the largest in town and, interestingly, the east end was the only area of Guelph to show positive growth in median sale price from Q2 to Q3 of this year.

WEST GUELPH REVIEW

  • We can all breathe again. The insane and unsustainable increases in West Guelph home prices have finally subsided.

  • Consecutive Q’s of 30-40% Y/Y growth had to end, but the question was - how rough was the landing go to be? The numbers tell us it was a fairly soft landing in Q3. The complete lack of West Guelph new home supply likely provided a buffer to the bottom-line, as purchasers had no choice but to look to the resale market.

  • While the Q/Q numbers might raise some concern, the Y/Y figures tell a healthier story. Remember, your housing investments grow over years, not months. With a complete void of new homes, we say the west-side still rides high in 2018.

NORTH GUELPH REVIEW

  • The two hallmarks of the North Guelph market - calculated growth and a consistently friendlier entry-point. In the aftermath of an unprecedented start to 2017, life on the North-side appears to be getting back to normal. A rollback in median sale price of 10.9% Q/Q is softened by the 3.8% Y/Y figures. In an area that typically sees between 5-8% growth Y/Y, the gains realized in Q1 and Q2 were simply too much for the North Guelph market to hold.

  • When comparing the North Guelph figures with other regions, solid value appears to be presenting itself in both detached and towns/link homes. An almost 100k gap between East and North Guelph town homes should draw a crowd in the near future.

  • Download the complete Q3 | 2017 Data Report here


UNDERSTANDING THE CALCULATIONS

Sales to new listing ratio

A real estate market never heads in just one direction. Several key factors can drastically influence the direction of the market including mortgage interest rates, employment levels/growth, investment growth, immigration and development. Separately, or in conjunction with one another, they can influence whether we are it is a buyer’s market or a seller’s market.

A buyer’s market exists when there significantly more homes for sale than there are buyers. The typical end results a drop in median sale prices over time as home owners adjust their expectations to the current market conditions.

A sellers market typically exists when interest rates are low are there are plenty of qualified buyers and not as many homes for sale. Buyers must react quickly and often face multiple offer situations. Prices generally rise under these circumstances.

To appropriately measure market activity, TrilliumWest uses the Sales/New Listing Ratio. The primary purpose of this ratio is to measure the balance between market supply and demand.

  • a ratio between .40-.60 is considered a seller's market
  • a ratio of less than .40 is considered to be a buyer's market

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