- Market Data & Analysis
It's here, the most comprehensive real estate market report for the City of Guelph. Prepared in-house, and always with care, to ensure the most complete set of data possible.
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SOUTH GUELPH REVIEW
DOWNTOWN GUELPH REVIEW
As we have been saying for several Q’s now, Downtown Guelph continues to avoid the volatility of more peripheral corners of the city. The modest Q/Q and Y/Y median sale price gains continued into Q1. The 9% Y/Y increase was the highest in the city, and was largely driven by a 33.8% Y/Y increase in median sale price of Downtown condos. As new entries to the Downtown condo market continue to push limits in the coming Q’s, we only see this factor continuing.
While volume of sales and new listings decreased both Y/Y and Q/Q, stability remains the name of the game Downtown. As the volume of listings increase with warmer weather, look for a robust Q2 in the city core.
EAST GUELPH REVIEW
After 5 consecutive Q’s of insanity, the roller coaster ride in East Guelph might finally be over. A lack of new construction and a seemingly endless parade of value-seeking GTA’ers, caused a lot of confusion in the 2017 East Guelph market. It peaked in Q3 of last year, rolled back 12.5% in Q4 and continues to work its way back.
While we are still 6.4% away from the median sale price high-water mark of $499,900 (Q3 2017), town/link homes are helping the charge back to that number with an all-time high median sale price of $460,000 in Q1. Detached homes are still almost 15% lower than just two Q’s ago. A number we will be watching very carefully headed into Q2.
WEST GUELPH REVIEW
Q1 was another consecutive quarter littered with downward arrows. Certainly doesn’t look pretty, but what do the numbers really say? One of the major signs of a market in decline is an increase in inventory and a subsequent decrease in sales volume. Fortunately, that is not what is happening in West Guelph. The number of new listings and the number of sales are moving in relative unison and the tell-tale sales to new listing ratio still sits at a very high 0.8, the highest in the city. The 35% Y/Y increases of Q2 2017 were neither healthy or sustainable.
We say the storm is over and the West Guelph market will enjoy a healthy family buying season during Q2.
NORTH GUELPH REVIEW
For the past few years we have been pushing the value to be found in North Guelph. The large price gaps with other areas of the city have not only closed, in some cases portions of the North Guelph market have become amongst the most expensive in town. Apartment/condos are the 2nd priciest in Guelph, while the detached homes prices are hard on the heels of East Guelph for 2nd most expensive in town.
So will this new trend in the North continue? With a full slate of impressive new homes on the way in Q2, we say yes. Expect the North to be a leading star in Q2.
Sales to new listing ratio
A real estate market never heads in just one direction. Several key factors can drastically influence the direction of the market including mortgage interest rates, employment levels/growth, investment growth, immigration and development. Separately, or in conjunction with one another, they can influence whether we are it is a buyer’s market or a seller’s market.
A buyer’s market exists when there significantly more homes for sale than there are buyers. The typical end results a drop in median sale prices over time as home owners adjust their expectations to the current market conditions.
A sellers market typically exists when interest rates are low are there are plenty of qualified buyers and not as many homes for sale. Buyers must react quickly and often face multiple offer situations. Prices generally rise under these circumstances.
To appropriately measure market activity, TrilliumWest uses the Sales/New Listing Ratio. The primary purpose of this ratio is to measure the balance between market supply and demand.