Market

DATA & ANALYSIS

Dive Deeper

It's here, the most comprehensive real estate market report for the entire region - Cambridge, Guelph, Kitchener, and Waterloo. Prepared in-house, and always with maximum attention to detail to ensure the most complete data and analysis possible.

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Download the Q1 TW Regional Report

Archives of past reports are at the bottom of this page. Consume wisely, friends.

THE Q4 Snapshot

City of Cambridge

Is it me you’re looking for?

While we can be fairly certain Lionel Richie did not have 2022
Cambridge home buyers in mind when he wrote this classic tune,
a more calculated and balanced market is exactly what many have
been hoping to find for far too long now. It is difficult to spot it in the
total Q1 numbers, but when we dug deeper, the data really began
to skew towards mid-March. The playing field had levelled and
buyers were even now calling some of the shots in some Cambridge
neighbourhoods.

So what happens now, Lionel and friends? We will have to wait and
see in Q2, but we can be certain that the near-million dollar price
tag across town sure isn’t going to make Sunday mornings easy for
everyone.

City of Guelph

Popcorn ready? The show is about to begin

Lil’ ol’ quaint, agricultural hub, university-town Guelph is now firmly
anchored as one of the most expensive places to raise a family in
the province. With detached home prices that now rival major urban
centres and downtown condo per square foot pricing that is typically
reserved for those luxury buildings overlooking Lake Ontario, like it or
not it is a fact, and Guelph is now a GTA West market.

So … the 1 million dollar club question is - what happens next? An
historically balanced, predictable and impervious market to large
fluctuations in the GTA, will Guelph now ride that speculative-driven
roller coaster? When those big buyers flock back to the big smoke will it
leave this newly-created GTA West market as a casualty for the locals
to mourn?\

It feels like Q2 will hold the answer to that question. Enjoy the show,
folks.

Cities of Kitchener & Waterloo

Time to be fond-o condo

Mark your calendars, Q2 2022 could be the exact moment that the
brilliance of the KW development plan becomes the instant envy of
surrounding communities. That rich moment when all of the condo
naysayers in Cambridge and Guelph go ‘oh, yeah that makes sense
now. Maybe we should do that too.’ This is your time to shine KW.

It’s a simple matter of math and common sense. Condos are the most
cost-effective way for those currently paying rent to become those
paying their own mortgage instead. While Guelph and Cambridge
have been ‘meh’ on the idea of vertical growth, the urban portions
of KW now find themselves rich with both new and upcoming resale
opportunities for prospective purchasers.

This intelligent condo segment will drive KW forward and continue to
attract new purchasers throughout the more paced market ahead.
Your time to shine KW, go get it.

The Townships

The last of the unplucked gems

The covid-driven mass-migration out of the urban areas across the
Region might be mostly complete, but there is still dust yet to be
settled. What we are left with now is a balancing act, the same type
of filtering we witnessed from buyers in the cities over the past two
years. Some of the price gaps between the various Townships are still
too severe and should begin to sort itself out over the next few Q’s.

Opportunities even at these price points? Yes. Both the rural and
urban areas of Centre Wellington are once again a value play when
stacked up against the surrounding competition. The data says
North Dumfries, Wellesley and Wilmot Townships all still have room
to grow.

Stay plugged in, friends.

The Footnotes

Township Limitations

While we make every effort to obtain as much data as possible from a variety of sources, sometimes there just isn't enough of it to report statistically significant figures.

The Townships can often have very low totals over any individual quarter, so although we do our best to report the facts, sometimes the facts are a little light on substance.

Sales to New Listing Ratio

A real estate market never heads in just one direction. Several key factors can drastically influence the direction of the market including mortgage interest rates, employment levels/growth, investment growth, immigration and development. Separately, or in conjunction with one another, they can influence whether we are it is a buyer’s market or a seller’s market.

A buyer’s market exists when there significantly more homes for sale than there are buyers. The typical end result is a drop in median sale prices over time as homeowners adjust their expectations to the current market conditions.

A seller's market typically exists when interest rates are low are there are plenty of qualified buyers and not as many homes for sale. Buyers must react quickly and often face multiple offer situations. Prices generally rise under these circumstances.

To appropriately measure market activity, TrilliumWest uses the Sales/New Listing Ratio as much as possible. The primary purpose of this ratio is to measure the balance between market supply and demand.

  • a ratio between .40-.60 is considered a seller's market
  • a ratio of less than .40 is considered to be a buyer's market

The Archives

2020 Regional Reports

2021 Regional Reports

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