Market

DATA & ANALYSIS

Dive Deeper

It's here, the most comprehensive real estate market report for the entire region - Cambridge, Guelph, Kitchener, and Waterloo. Prepared in-house, and always with maximum attention to detail to ensure the most complete data and analysis possible.

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Download the Q1 TW Regional Report

Archives of past reports are at the bottom of this page. Consume wisely, friends.

THE Q4 Snapshot

City of Cambridge

Remember the Good Ol' Days

Remember when Cambridge was the place to find some bang for your buck
in the Region? A place where the average family could live comfortably and
maybe even have a few of those hard-earned bucks left over at the end of
the month? A place where not every last dollar was being poured into your
housing? Well, you should remember those days, that was still the case up until
about a year ago.

The mass exodus out of the GTA and the subsequent uniformity of pricing
across the Region has brought us to this point - the point where the median
detached home in Cambridge is selling for $785,000, a 63% increase in
exactly 2 years time. A place where the income qualifier to purchase the
median family home is around 200k+ a year. A place where home values went
up an entirely unhealthy 33% Y/Y and an astonishingly unstable 25% Q/Q.

The worst part? The data says this runaway train isn’t ready to put the brakes
on yet. Buckle up.

City of Guelph

It's Ok to Feel Lost

One of the great advantages of a complete analysis of the Region’s real
estate data every quarter is that we can talk specifically about not only
where we are, but where we came from. Two years ago after the end of
Q1 the median sale price for a home in Guelph was $582,500. Flash
forward two years and that number now sits at $813,750. An appreciation
of $231,250. The income qualifier to afford the median home in Guelph is
now north of 250k a year. The median family in Guelph makes far less than
half that amount.

The median home sale price spiked $98,750 in the past 90 days alone.
So while current Guelph homeowners made themselves a tidy 1k+ a day
just for living, frustrated Buyers would have needed at least 5k more for
a minimum deposit and to earn 30k+ more in annual income just to keep
pace. Buyers feel the urgency to buy and therefore bid aggressively when
they have their chance. Prices spike, the gap between the have and have
nots widens, and the cycle continues.

Cities of Kitchener & Waterloo

You Need to Know These Numbers

While the big picture story may seem repetitive to both Cambridge and
Guelph, the real estate market in KW is a little different by design - and it is
really starting to show. While other cities have been limping in to the urban
condo market, KW doubled down as a measure to provide some much
needed relief and alternative options to subdivisions. And it is working. Don’t
believe it? Let’s look at the data.

While the Covid crisis has pushed many newcomers into the Region, they
aren’t moving from the GTA to the urban centers, they are pushing prices
on the perimeter of the cities. The price of a detached home has risen 54%
in the past 2 years. The median downtown Kitchener condo, only 2% over
the same 2 years. The core of the city was flooded with new condo supply
over the past decade and it has worked to provide options even throughout
this insanity.

Looking to get in the market? Look at a Downtown Kitchener condo and
don’t look back.

The Townships

Feels Like Now or Never For Many

You know that dream of exchanging your home and backyard in the city
for a cute country home on some acreage? Well, the facts are you better
get on that quick. It is no longer a straight across trade and becoming
more out of reach daily. Median sale prices in 2 of the 7 Townships now
exceed 1 million and another 3 or 4 are merely a big Q away from reaching that number.

If you are waiting for rural prices to go down, we are sorry to say that the
data says that isn’t likely to happen soon. Just look at the Q/Q figures for
each Township. The lowest is a 9% increase. That’s 9% in 3 months, and
we are now heading into busy season for rural properties. These numbers
are likely to only increase as Covid demand continues and more and more
families head out of the city.

No matter how shocking they may be, as long as city prices continue to
climb, these rural numbers will continue to outpace them.

The Footnotes

Township Limitations

While we make every effort to obtain as much data as possible from a variety of sources, sometimes there just isn't enough of it to report statistically significant figures.

The Townships can often have very low totals over any individual quarter, so although we do our best to report the facts, sometimes the facts are a little light on substance.

Sales to New Listing Ratio

A real estate market never heads in just one direction. Several key factors can drastically influence the direction of the market including mortgage interest rates, employment levels/growth, investment growth, immigration and development. Separately, or in conjunction with one another, they can influence whether we are it is a buyer’s market or a seller’s market.

A buyer’s market exists when there significantly more homes for sale than there are buyers. The typical end result is a drop in median sale prices over time as homeowners adjust their expectations to the current market conditions.

A seller's market typically exists when interest rates are low are there are plenty of qualified buyers and not as many homes for sale. Buyers must react quickly and often face multiple offer situations. Prices generally rise under these circumstances.

To appropriately measure market activity, TrilliumWest uses the Sales/New Listing Ratio as much as possible. The primary purpose of this ratio is to measure the balance between market supply and demand.

  • a ratio between .40-.60 is considered a seller's market
  • a ratio of less than .40 is considered to be a buyer's market

The Archives

2020 Regional Reports

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