Market

DATA & ANALYSIS

Dive Deeper

It's here, the most comprehensive real estate market report for the entire region - Cambridge, Guelph, Kitchener, and Waterloo. Prepared in-house, and always with maximum attention to detail to ensure the most complete data and analysis possible.

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Download the Q3 TW Regional Report

Archives of past reports are at the bottom of this page. Consume wisely, friends.

THE Q3 Snapshot

City of Cambridge

Where's the beef?

Don’t look now Cambridge, but you are home to both some of
the least and most expensive neighbourhoods across the Region.
While prices in Hespeler continue to run further away from the
affordability of the average family (more than 11% higher median sale
price than any other part of Cambridge), other areas like Preston
may still provide the tiniest bit of refuge to a buyer’s budget.

When looking at the middle ground, Cambridge as a city has
surpassed the 800k median detached sale price for the first time
on record - a 30% Y/Y increase. While there are signs of slowing
down, shortening supply, ultra-competitive practices and limited
new construction are all still providing plenty of buyers a beef with
the whole situation.

City of Guelph

Welcome to the millionaire's club, Guelph style.

Coming in at $1,024,450, South Guelph will forever have the dubious
distinction of being the first urban neighbourhood across the Region
to top the million dollar median detached sale price. Company is
coming though as Midtown is likely to add to the club by next spring.

Is that what South Guelph was designed to be? A utopia where
millionaire families could pack up their Rolls Royce minivan and just
trade the big city for a bigger backyard? Probably not, but we are
where we are.

Simply put, resale supply is minuscule and new build supply of a
whopping 36 detached homes in the entire city this year is making
things even worse. We need to BUILD MORE HOUSES.

Cities of Kitchener & Waterloo

The balance between chaos and order.

Amidst all the crazy of unpredictable leaps and bounds of this
current market, the cities of Kitchener and Waterloo are providing
an interesting source of calm and consistency. Huh, what you talking
‘bout TW? Stick with us here …

We always watch for uniformity between the number of new listings
and the total volume of commensurate sales. These two figures in KW
have been moving in almost exact unison since the beginning of the
pandemic and continued into Q3. As the ebb and flow of the market
has moved, the sale prices have continued to trend aggressively
upwards, yet ratios have always stayed remarkably consistent.

You are our real estate rock, KW

The Townships

Pumping the brakes?

Sellers continued to swing for the fences, but it appears as if a comfort
level for buyers has been reached. Typically Q3 is a big inning for properties outside the urban areas, but Q3 2021 through us a bit of a non-standard knuckleball. For the first time in many Q’s, the median sale price, although slightly, actually declined.

So … Where do we head from here? Is this the place for a temporary
pause for prices in the Townships, or was this just the end of an exhausting
outing spanning many months? We say a bit of both.

Look for prices to remain relatively flat in the colder months ahead and
begin to heat back up again with the weather. That’s a much more normal
cycle and we see the Townships getting back to more typical times in the
coming Q’s.

The Footnotes

Township Limitations

While we make every effort to obtain as much data as possible from a variety of sources, sometimes there just isn't enough of it to report statistically significant figures.

The Townships can often have very low totals over any individual quarter, so although we do our best to report the facts, sometimes the facts are a little light on substance.

Sales to New Listing Ratio

A real estate market never heads in just one direction. Several key factors can drastically influence the direction of the market including mortgage interest rates, employment levels/growth, investment growth, immigration and development. Separately, or in conjunction with one another, they can influence whether we are it is a buyer’s market or a seller’s market.

A buyer’s market exists when there significantly more homes for sale than there are buyers. The typical end result is a drop in median sale prices over time as homeowners adjust their expectations to the current market conditions.

A seller's market typically exists when interest rates are low are there are plenty of qualified buyers and not as many homes for sale. Buyers must react quickly and often face multiple offer situations. Prices generally rise under these circumstances.

To appropriately measure market activity, TrilliumWest uses the Sales/New Listing Ratio as much as possible. The primary purpose of this ratio is to measure the balance between market supply and demand.

  • a ratio between .40-.60 is considered a seller's market
  • a ratio of less than .40 is considered to be a buyer's market

The Archives

2020 Regional Reports

2021 Regional Reports

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