Market

DATA & ANALYSIS

Dive Deeper

It's here, the most comprehensive real estate market report for the entire region - Cambridge, Guelph, Kitchener, and Waterloo. Prepared in-house, and always with maximum attention to detail to ensure the most complete data and analysis possible.

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Download the Q4 TW Regional Report

Archives of past reports are at the bottom of this page. Consume wisely, friends.

THE Q4 Snapshot

City of Cambridge

Just like the rest of the Region

Remember when families around the Region began to move en masse to
Cambridge in order to find added value in a home? I think we confidently
say that after a huge 2020, that gig is up.

With a median detached sale price that increased 16.6% in 2020, or in
other words, the median Cambridge home appreciated almost 100k in
just one year. Oh, and in the middle of a global pandemic. This now places
the detached home market in Cambridge a mere 3% off of the historically
much pricier Kitchener/Waterloo market.

This all makes complete sense, right? For most locals, it won’t, but locals
aren’t driving this change. For GTA Buyers, Cambridge is closer to the big
smoke and provides that easy access to the 401, so why would Cambridge
possibly be less expensive? This regionalization of home pricing has been
building for years and 2020 put the final touches on that.

Big year Cambridge, big year.

City of Guelph

Time for the truth

Guelph, like it or not, has become a very elite place to live. That’s
not a political statement, it’s a statistical statement. With a median
detached sale price of $715,000 and rising, fewer and fewer individuals
and families are looking at Guelph as a viable option to live. 23% Y/Y
increases are simply not healthy, nor sustainable. Not much room for
debate there.

How did we get here? Quite simply, through a complete lack of supply
and one that current city homeowners can not provide. Guelph is not
building nearly enough detached homes to keep up with demand. The
entire city built 85 detached homes last year, an all-time low and a very
problematic number. Ontario cities a quarter the size of Guelph build
twice that amount in half as much time. If changes to housing supply
don’t happen soon, we will see the median detached price of a home
exceed 1 million in Guelph by the end of 2022. Let that sink in.

Cities of Kitchener & Waterloo

Quite the year KDub. So now what?

Here is what we know - the median detached home sale price increased
by 17.8% over this past year, ending the year at $683,550. If COVID
has taught us anything in the real estate market, it is that more and
more people are looking for more and more space. There is a stronger
desire than ever to be detached.

As the pandemic has worn on, motorcades of GTA-dwellers continue
to venture down the 401 in search of more affordable detached
housing. Add that to the already scorching marketplace and you have
yourself a bit of a real estate firestorm. That’s how we got here.

Will 2021 see anything change? Sorry prospective purchasers, we can’t
see anything in the data to suggest anything short of this continuation
of double-digit growth. By the way, another 17.8% increase would place
the median detached home over 800k by the end of 2021. Just an FYI.

The Townships

The start of the great migration?

We all dream of it - that perfect quiet living in the ideal country setting.
For most urban dwellers it is a later in life dream that we only hope to
someday afford. In 2020, many folks moved up their timeline and
made that dream a reality by taking maximum advantage of record-high home prices in the city.

We see this as only the beginning of a much bigger movement. The
shortage of detached home supply, coupled with the very low new
home production of detached homes in the urban areas of the Region
is only going to fuel a surge of fresh purchasers to rural properties in
every direction.

The COVID-era has helped ignite a flame that has been burning
for quite some time and we don’t see that fire being extinguished
anytime soon.

The Footnotes

Township Limitations

While we make every effort to obtain as much data as possible from a variety of sources, sometimes there just isn't enough of it to report statistically significant figures.

The Townships can often have very low totals over any individual quarter, so although we do our best to report the facts, sometimes the facts are a little light on substance.

Sales to New Listing Ratio

A real estate market never heads in just one direction. Several key factors can drastically influence the direction of the market including mortgage interest rates, employment levels/growth, investment growth, immigration and development. Separately, or in conjunction with one another, they can influence whether we are it is a buyer’s market or a seller’s market.

A buyer’s market exists when there significantly more homes for sale than there are buyers. The typical end result is a drop in median sale prices over time as homeowners adjust their expectations to the current market conditions.

A seller's market typically exists when interest rates are low are there are plenty of qualified buyers and not as many homes for sale. Buyers must react quickly and often face multiple offer situations. Prices generally rise under these circumstances.

To appropriately measure market activity, TrilliumWest uses the Sales/New Listing Ratio as much as possible. The primary purpose of this ratio is to measure the balance between market supply and demand.

  • a ratio between .40-.60 is considered a seller's market
  • a ratio of less than .40 is considered to be a buyer's market

The Archives

2020 Regional Reports

2019 Regional Reports

2018 Regional Reports

2017 Guelph Data Reports

2016 Guelph Data Reports

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