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Market Data & Analysis

A STRONGER KNOWLEDGE OF THE LOCAL LANDSCAPE


It's here, the most comprehensive real estate market report for the City of Guelph. Prepared in-house, and always with care, to ensure the most complete set of data possible.

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SNAPSHOT OF THE Q4 | 2017 TRILLIUMWEST DATA REPORT

So ... What happens now?

  • Hope your seat belts were fastened for all of 2017, because that was one strange ride. It was a tale of two markets in 2017. The first half of the year saw insatiable acquisition of property and the last half saw a more measured approach to purchasing. As of Jan 1st, new lending regulations have also been introduced that will have an immediate impact. Does a new year bring a return to the fevered pace, or did we all learn the consequences of an over-heated market in 2017? Let’s hope we learned a lesson.

Do student rentals still work?

  • In a rising market, we get asked this all of the time. Does the math still work on student investment properties?
    The answer really depends on what your investment strategy is. Vacancy rates are still very low and rents are increasing. Premium units are fetching big dollars, so talk to your Realtor and get it right.

+23%

  • Y/Y increase in West Guelph median listing price. The highest in the city as sellers tried to cash in.

+68%

  • Q/Q increase in the South Guelph sales/new listing ratio. A big response after a step back in Q3 2017.

+5%

  • Y/Y increase in median sale price in East Guelph. Up for the year, but a big rollback from previous Q’s.

+3%

  • Q/Q increase in median sale price in West Guelph. The only area of town that saw rising prices in Q4.

-5%

  • Q/Q decrease in the Downtown median sale price. The first down Q in years for the heart of the city.

-11%

  • Q/Q decrease in South Guelph median listing price. Sellers reacted to the market to get their property sold.

-7%

  • Q/Q decrease in North Guelph median sale price. A second consecutive big drop in the North end.

-13%

  • Q/Q decrease in the East Guelph median sale price. The tumultuous ride on the East-side continued.

SOUTH GUELPH REVIEW

  • At first glance, we paid a heavy price in Q4 for the seemingly insatiable house-binging that plagued the South-side for the majority of 2017. Down arrows across the board Q/Q, including a whopping 9.4% decrease in median sale price. The sky is officially falling in South Guelph, right? Not quite. Q4 has witnessed a Q/Q reduction in median sale price for the past 3 years. Although more significant this time around, it’s a typical late year trend in South Guelph.

  • If we focus on the Y/Y here, we can call Q4 a success in uncertain times for the South-side. Will it continue in 2018?.

DOWNTOWN GUELPH REVIEW

  • A bit of a strange Q for the numbers Downtown, as the Q/Q and Y/Y figures appear to contradict each other. The common thread though is stability, with no alarming figures or continuous trends for concern present. For the record, we don’t see that changing as we head into a year with a few more questions than usual. Downtown seems to be operating at a business-as-usual pace.

  • The 0.8 sales to new listing ratio, while still high, was remarkably the lowest Q4 figure in the city. A couple of new condo projects releasing in Q1 shouldn’t impact this stable figure too significantly. Keep on keeping on Downtown.

EAST GUELPH REVIEW

  • With a median sale price of a detached home rising over 25% in the past year (Q4 2016 - $518,000, Q4 2017 - $646,000), affordable old East Guelph is a term left behind by most. Attached living options are not only necessary, they are taking over the market. No where else in Guelph do we see a higher percentage of listings and sales emerge from inventory types other than single family detached.

  • So how did attached living options fare in Q4? Y/Y town homes increased a stable 8.6% in median sale price. Through all of the craziness and the ups and downs of 2017, East Guelph managed to stay the long-term course. With 100’s of new build condo and attached options anticipated to market in 2018, we will see if this added supply alters the trend.

WEST GUELPH REVIEW

  • Over the years, West Guelph has been a model for market consistency. That was until 2017 arrived. The year saw an ever-changing up and down story from Q/Q, but by the time we completed Q4, the dust has settled in another big year of gains. The 16.9% Y/Y increase in median sale price was the largest in the city, mostly driven by a 13% Y/Y increase in detached median sale price.

  • With a sale to new listing ratio still heavily favouring sellers and almost zero new homes scheduled to enter the West Guelph market in early 2018, it’s tough to find much room for skepticism. Limited supply should continue to control the market in Q1.

NORTH GUELPH REVIEW

  • It’s not often we say this much variability in the North Guelph market, but 2017 was a ride. After four Q’s of up and down, the North-side ended up where it usually does with modest single digit Y/Y gains in median sale price. Does that 7.2% decrease in Q/Q median sale price looking concerning? Well, if we dig a little deeper, we can see that the gap between median list price and median sale price was the highest in the city at 5.3%. However, the 0.94 sales to new listing ratio indicates that listings are having problems selling. Sellers may have been a little overzealous with their expectations after a torrid spring and summer.

  • No new homes and continued limited supply should ensure continued growth for the North Guelph market in early 2018.

  • Download the complete Q4 | 2017 Data Report here


UNDERSTANDING THE CALCULATIONS

Sales to new listing ratio

A real estate market never heads in just one direction. Several key factors can drastically influence the direction of the market including mortgage interest rates, employment levels/growth, investment growth, immigration and development. Separately, or in conjunction with one another, they can influence whether we are it is a buyer’s market or a seller’s market.

A buyer’s market exists when there significantly more homes for sale than there are buyers. The typical end results a drop in median sale prices over time as home owners adjust their expectations to the current market conditions.

A sellers market typically exists when interest rates are low are there are plenty of qualified buyers and not as many homes for sale. Buyers must react quickly and often face multiple offer situations. Prices generally rise under these circumstances.

To appropriately measure market activity, TrilliumWest uses the Sales/New Listing Ratio. The primary purpose of this ratio is to measure the balance between market supply and demand.

  • a ratio between .40-.60 is considered a seller's market
  • a ratio of less than .40 is considered to be a buyer's market

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