Market

DATA & ANALYSIS

Dive Deeper

It's here, the most comprehensive real estate market report for the entire region - Cambridge, Guelph, Kitchener, and Waterloo. Prepared in-house, and always with maximum attention to detail to ensure the most complete data and analysis possible.

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Download the Q1 TW Regional Report

Archives of past reports are at the bottom of this page. Consume wisely, friends.

THE Q1 Snapshot

City of Cambridge

How well will Cambridge handle the COVID-effect market?

Well, let’s look at the facts - that was the hottest Q on record for the city of Cambridge, period. If you are going to come out of a tough situation, you better hope you are going into it hot. And the Cambridge market sure was hot. However, we feel the story may not end that easily.

The Cambridge market was the biggest benefactor of a mass move out of the GTA for the past few Q’s. The coming Q’s are likely to see a dramatic reduction in that interest group, leaving the Cambridge market to stand on its own two feet.

With meteoric leaps in recent Q’s, we can’t help but see some potential problems with this scenario. No crystal balls here, but the Cambridge market might be headed for a tougher Q2 than the rest of the Region.

City of Guelph

Consistently consistent, with a twist of inconsistency.

Through the first 10 weeks of Q1, Guelph did what Guelph always does at the start of a new year - the market flourished with optimism and that energy was fuelled by the return of a real estate diet filled with student investment purchases. The aftermath of this binging produced notable increases in both sale volume and prices across the city.

As we venture into a completely new world in Q2, we see Guelphreal estate showing its teeth a little and standing its ground. The scorching hot market heading into this, the extreme shortage of housing supply and the economic resilience and diversity of Guelph will all be there to help defend its real estate turf.

Volumes will certainly witness some jaw-dropping reductions, however, home sale prices in Guelph are well-suited to take minimal damage comparatively.

Cities of Kitchener & Waterloo

Hot or not? It. Was. Hot.

2020 picked up what 2019 was laying down. The cold winter months did little to cool the temperature of a raging Q4. New barriers were broken, most notably that of the median detached sale price - up almost 17.9% Y/Y and a chaotic 7.7% Q/Q and now resting in excess of the 600k mark for the first time in KW’s history.

The $600,000 question is ... how will the new COVID-19 world reshape the KW real estate landscape? With unparalleled employment, economic diversity, great community leadership, and a legendary warrior spirit - we see the KW market having some issues, but battling through as well as can be expected.

Volumes will be down, prices should hang in there and the KW market will find a way to fight on through. You can quote us on that.

The Townships

The numbers sure were pretty outside the city..

Q1 2020 was a tribute to the banner year of 2019. The momentum from a complete year in the surrounding rural communities spilled over and just kept rolling.

As both prices and volumes in the city took monumental leaps forward, the numbers tell the story of a more stable and sensible approach in almost every Township. It was a solid Q, especially considering the Townships typically don’t see big sales action until Q2.

So, how will our pristine pastoral places fair into Q2? There is plenty to ponder: Will more city-dwellers be choosing the wide-open spaces? Will small-town appeal and reduced prices begin to draw an even bigger crowd? We will wait and see, but the Townships are going into the COVID-19 era with a lot of strength and momentum.

The Footnotes

Township Limitations

While we make every effort to obtain as much data as possible from a variety of sources, sometimes there just isn't enough of it to report statistically significant figures.

The Townships can often have very low totals over any individual quarter, so although we do our best to report the facts, sometimes the facts are a little light on substance.

Sales to New Listing Ratio

A real estate market never heads in just one direction. Several key factors can drastically influence the direction of the market including mortgage interest rates, employment levels/growth, investment growth, immigration and development. Separately, or in conjunction with one another, they can influence whether we are it is a buyer’s market or a seller’s market.

A buyer’s market exists when there significantly more homes for sale than there are buyers. The typical end result is a drop in median sale prices over time as homeowners adjust their expectations to the current market conditions.

A seller's market typically exists when interest rates are low are there are plenty of qualified buyers and not as many homes for sale. Buyers must react quickly and often face multiple offer situations. Prices generally rise under these circumstances.

To appropriately measure market activity, TrilliumWest uses the Sales/New Listing Ratio as much as possible. The primary purpose of this ratio is to measure the balance between market supply and demand.

  • a ratio between .40-.60 is considered a seller's market
  • a ratio of less than .40 is considered to be a buyer's market

The Archives

2019 Regional Reports

2018 Regional Reports

2017 Guelph Data Reports

2016 Guelph Data Reports

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