Market

DATA & ANALYSIS

Dive Deeper

It's here, the most comprehensive real estate market report for the entire region - Cambridge, Guelph, Kitchener, and Waterloo. Prepared in-house, and always with maximum attention to detail to ensure the most complete data and analysis possible.

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Download the Q4 TW Regional Report

Archives of past reports are at the bottom of this page. Consume wisely, friends.

THE Q3 Snapshot

City of Cambridge

How does this story end?

Epic, crazy, uncontrollable, unsustainable - all adjectives that you could use to describe the end to a memorable year in Cambridge. For many, you could probably also add the word ‘un-affordable’ in there now as well. As Buyers enjoyed a year-long binge on anything and everything Cambridge real estate, we are now left to analyze the numerical pieces and properly plan for the future.

This is not going to be easy.

Hespeler has become one of the most expensive areas across the entire Region. Will it continue to be more expensive than anywhere in the entire city of Guelph? History says ‘no’, but the limited supply pipeline says ‘why not’.

Hold on tight, this story is about to get real interesting in Q1.

City of Guelph

They came and they sure went.

Q4 was oddly an atypical finish to what was much more of a typical year in Guelph real estate. The first 3 quarters saw a return to a more consistent figures and pace of market activity. Q4 though kicked plenty of that consistency straight to the curb.

A huge bounce back Q for South Guelph prices really steered the market and the familiar old common enemy of Guelph real estate stepped to the forefront once again - lack of new home supply. A Q4 ratio in excess of 1 across the city signals an even tighter market ahead
in a typical feverish Q1.

If we learned anything from the recent past, we see Q1 shaping up to
resemble that of the infamous spring of 2017.

Better fasten those seat belts friends, it could be a fast & furious ride.

Cities of Kitchener & Waterloo

Quite a quarter to complete quite a year.

The stories of 2019 real estate in KW will be told for years to come. The year was filled with the kind of stuff future Realtors, investors and home-owners will sit and listen to with awe. Lessons were learned, adjustments were made and in some areas, even balance was found.

So what now? Does the market return to more predictable times or
does the surge simply continue?

Well, while we see disparities across every area in the Region, Kitchener and Waterloo as a whole are witnessing substantial reductions in housing supply. With prices spiking significantly and
fewer new homes brought to market, the supply of available listings dropped significantly down 23.4% from Q4 2019 and 21.8% from the same period in 2018.

Without a doubt, supply will tell the story in 2020.

The Townships

You can leave the city, but you can’t leave the busy markets behind.

Q4 put a pretty bow on an epic year in the surrounding Townships of the Region. The days of finding hidden country gems for a little more breathing room in your backyard and also inside your mortgage, appear to be numbered. The Townships were almost as busy as anywhere else across the region for all of 2019.

Several of the Townships have wisely begun to entice families of all ages away from the busier urban streets. Plenty of ‘large lot’ subdivisions and an array of intelligent housing options have been too tempting to ignore for a steady stream of purchasers. And we don’t see this changing in 2020.

As supply streams tighten throughout the cities, new opportunities to build that idyllic family home are on;y increasing in the Townships. 2020 should see both the pace of development and Buyer intrigue continue, if not increase.

The Footnotes

Township Limitations

While we make every effort to obtain as much data as possible from a variety of sources, sometimes there just isn't enough of it to report statistically significant figures.

The Townships can often have very low totals over any individual quarter, so although we do our best to report the facts, sometimes the facts are a little light on substance.

Sales to New Listing Ratio

A real estate market never heads in just one direction. Several key factors can drastically influence the direction of the market including mortgage interest rates, employment levels/growth, investment growth, immigration and development. Separately, or in conjunction with one another, they can influence whether we are it is a buyer’s market or a seller’s market.

A buyer’s market exists when there significantly more homes for sale than there are buyers. The typical end result is a drop in median sale prices over time as homeowners adjust their expectations to the current market conditions.

A seller's market typically exists when interest rates are low are there are plenty of qualified buyers and not as many homes for sale. Buyers must react quickly and often face multiple offer situations. Prices generally rise under these circumstances.

To appropriately measure market activity, TrilliumWest uses the Sales/New Listing Ratio as much as possible. The primary purpose of this ratio is to measure the balance between market supply and demand.

  • a ratio between .40-.60 is considered a seller's market
  • a ratio of less than .40 is considered to be a buyer's market

The Archives

2019 Regional Reports

2018 Regional Reports

2017 Guelph Data Reports

2016 Guelph Data Reports

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