Market

DATA & ANALYSIS

Dive Deeper

It's here, the most comprehensive real estate market report for the entire region - Cambridge, Guelph, Kitchener, and Waterloo. Prepared in-house, and always with maximum attention to detail to ensure the most complete data and analysis possible.

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Download the Q3 TW Regional Report

Archives of past reports are at the bottom of this page. Consume wisely, friends.

THE Q3 Snapshot

City of Cambridge

Is this ride going to stay on the rails?

The Region’s little emerging market that could is now completely out of
the shed. Fuelling the COVID-era engines is the detached home market
with an explosive 17% Y/Y increase across the city. As the ever-increasing
demand for space continues to grow, Buyers couldn’t consume enough of
Cambridge in Q3. The end result of a median mark in excess of 600k
has left many to wonder if this is more of a runaway train than a carefully
conducted journey upwards. With a continuance of supply numbers
down and sales volumes up, any less-expensive Regional ticket to ride in
Cambridge has long since expired.

However, it may not be all bad news for those Buyers with some patience in the Q4 ahead. A typically slower season combined with increasing COVID numbers and less willingness to move during winter months may open some doors that have remained closed through 2020 thus far. The Q3 data says this trip isn’t slowing down, but we say other factors will begin to dominate market activity in Q4 and there may be some opportunity stops along the way.

City of Guelph

Find yo’self a formidable fortune for four walls

Let’s just start with the big one - a median detached sale price of
700k in the City of Guelph (insert long dramatic pause here).
So how did we get here in this formally affordable agricultural
University town that just keeps smashing economists spreadsheets.
The answer is actually simple, it is grade 9 economics simple - for
years now Guelph has not been building nearly enough new homes
to keep up with increasing demand. 20% Y/Y growth is not new
territory for Guelph, this has been a relatively consistent trend for
over a decade. And now, in the midst of a pandemic where people
are migrating to the city from all over the GTA, this is the end result.
700k.

At this rate, the median detached sale price could top 1 million by
the end of 2022. We will just leave that here for everyone to digest.

Cities of Kitchener & Waterloo

Straight bananas on the street & on the scoreboard

19.2% Y/Y increase in the median detached sale price. Yes, bananas
indeed. But why? What is creating this seemingly never-ending
growth? Let’s quickly peel this …

Simply put, KW is insatiably desirable to a large array of purchasers.
Younger purchasers, move-up families and new to the Region families
are all loving their urban options and the ability of KW to meet a variety
of budgets. While across all price points competitive bidding-wars
are still the norm, Buyers do have substantially more options in KW.
Every area of the cities saw growth in Y/Y supply, frustrated Buyers
from other areas of the Region took note and honed their searches in
on KW instead. We only see this trend continuing as local authorities
wisely continue to support the pipeline of necessary and smart supply.

Congrats KW, you keep doing you.

The Townships

Country living has never been so appealing.

The COVID-era has forced everyone to analyze exactly how they
currently live and how they want to live going forward. Not just how
much interior square footage do we need, but how much exterior space
as well. As the urban areas across the Region shrink and continue to
populate, more and more city-dwellers are pushing to find a more
spacious way to live. In our lovely Region, they don’t even have to
completely re-invent their life to make that dream a reality.

The Townships have seen exponential growth since the start of Q2, but
what is really impressive is the parity at which it is occurring. Consistent
ratios demonstrate that purchasers are looking at all options outside the
cities and not just locking in on those areas closest to the 401 or the
GTA. With less need to travel for work, Buyers are focused on the right
fit for the right price. We see this trend only continuing.

The Footnotes

Township Limitations

While we make every effort to obtain as much data as possible from a variety of sources, sometimes there just isn't enough of it to report statistically significant figures.

The Townships can often have very low totals over any individual quarter, so although we do our best to report the facts, sometimes the facts are a little light on substance.

Sales to New Listing Ratio

A real estate market never heads in just one direction. Several key factors can drastically influence the direction of the market including mortgage interest rates, employment levels/growth, investment growth, immigration and development. Separately, or in conjunction with one another, they can influence whether we are it is a buyer’s market or a seller’s market.

A buyer’s market exists when there significantly more homes for sale than there are buyers. The typical end result is a drop in median sale prices over time as homeowners adjust their expectations to the current market conditions.

A seller's market typically exists when interest rates are low are there are plenty of qualified buyers and not as many homes for sale. Buyers must react quickly and often face multiple offer situations. Prices generally rise under these circumstances.

To appropriately measure market activity, TrilliumWest uses the Sales/New Listing Ratio as much as possible. The primary purpose of this ratio is to measure the balance between market supply and demand.

  • a ratio between .40-.60 is considered a seller's market
  • a ratio of less than .40 is considered to be a buyer's market

The Archives

2020 Regional Reports

2019 Regional Reports

2018 Regional Reports

2017 Guelph Data Reports

2016 Guelph Data Reports

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