Market

DATA & ANALYSIS

Dive Deeper

It's here, the most comprehensive real estate market report for the entire region - Cambridge, Guelph, Kitchener, and Waterloo. Prepared in-house, and always with maximum attention to detail to ensure the most complete data and analysis possible.

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Download the Q3 TW Regional Report

Archives of past reports are at the bottom of this page. Consume wisely, friends.

THE Q2 Snapshot

City of Cambridge

Blowing right by that big barrier.

Heading out of a precedent-setting Q2, the big question in Cambridge was - can this new world of life above a 500k median sale price threshold, hold? Well, Q3 answered that with a
resounding ‘you bet it can’.

How about this? In Q3, both West Galt and Hespeler saw median sale prices actually surpass consistent Regional leaders like Downtown and East Guelph. It’s not just a close-to-the-401-
GTA-buyer new home thing, it’s officially a full-on Cambridge thing now.

Too big too quick or is there sustainability here that will last through a typically slower Q4? Strap in friends, it should be an interesting ride to finish a huge 2019.

City of Guelph

Consistent, but with a new twist.

As the turbulent peaks and valleys of previous Q’s appear to be in the rearview mirror, all areas of Guelph are settling into their own individual new realities. And for the third Q in as row, Guelph did what it was supposed to do - grow, but with measured predictability.

One of the more interesting sub-markets in the city is really beginning to take shape, as the massive surge of South Guelph new-build condos is really being realized statistically. Now home to the lowest, yes you read the right, median sale price in town. For the first time in history the number of detached new listings equaled that of condo new listings for an entire Q.

Looking for the lowest prices in town - look to the South-side. When is the last time you could say that? The new norm or grab a ‘deal’ while you can?

Cities of Kitchener & Waterloo

Look at you, all grown up now.

As predicted, the summer months continued to tell a similar story. The message of 2019 has been all about identifying your place in this new world of seemingly insatiable demand for homes. We use the word ‘seemingly’ because Buyers have commanded some control in many sub-markets across KW.

The condo market in Waterloo had some adjustments to make in recent Q’s and Sellers, for the most part, listened to what their Realtor and the market was telling them. Now it is Downtown
Kitchener’s turn to do the same. The recent influx of new product into the urban marketplace has created a new world of supply that is still sorting itself out. Buyer demand is still strong, but Sellers must get their price right to play in the game.

With all lead indicators healthy, we see sales continuing with strength
through a typically quieter Q4.

The Townships

Paying the price to leave the city.

While it is always difficult to paint each of the unique townships of the Region with the same brush, not so when it comes to the commonality of the massive price spikes across the entire canvas. Q3 saw new high-water marks for most of the Region’s pastoral places as evidenced by a monstrous 17.7% Y/Y increase in median sale price.

While rolling country properties and quaint rural villages always show their very best in the dry summer months, the question remains - will prices continue to rise in the near future? With the
upcoming availability of larger lots in a measured new home supply and the ever-increasing demand to leave urban areas, we’re going with a resounding ‘yes’.

With a typically slower season on the horizon, this might be the time to pack up the wagon and head on out to the countryside.

The Footnotes

Township Limitations

While we make every effort to obtain as much data as possible from a variety of sources, sometimes there just isn't enough of it to report statistically significant figures.

The Townships can often have very low totals over any individual quarter, so although we do our best to report the facts, sometimes the facts are a little light on substance.

Sales to New Listing Ratio

A real estate market never heads in just one direction. Several key factors can drastically influence the direction of the market including mortgage interest rates, employment levels/growth, investment growth, immigration and development. Separately, or in conjunction with one another, they can influence whether we are it is a buyer’s market or a seller’s market.

A buyer’s market exists when there significantly more homes for sale than there are buyers. The typical end result is a drop in median sale prices over time as homeowners adjust their expectations to the current market conditions.

A seller's market typically exists when interest rates are low are there are plenty of qualified buyers and not as many homes for sale. Buyers must react quickly and often face multiple offer situations. Prices generally rise under these circumstances.

To appropriately measure market activity, TrilliumWest uses the Sales/New Listing Ratio as much as possible. The primary purpose of this ratio is to measure the balance between market supply and demand.

  • a ratio between .40-.60 is considered a seller's market
  • a ratio of less than .40 is considered to be a buyer's market

The Archives

2019 Regional Reports

2018 Regional Reports

2017 Guelph Data Reports

2016 Guelph Data Reports

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