Market

DATA & ANALYSIS

Dive Deeper

It's here, the most comprehensive real estate market report for the entire region - Cambridge, Guelph, Kitchener and Waterloo. Prepared in-house, and always with maximum attention to detail to ensure the most complete data and analysis possible.

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Download the Q4 Regional Report Here

Archives of past reports are at the bottom of this page. Consume wisely, friends.

THE Q4 Snapshot

City of Cambridge

Regional prices increase & the value gap in Cambridge still exists.

Everything is relative, and our Regional real estate market is no exception. Although Cambridge saw a fairly modest 5.9% Y/Y increase in median sale price, the numbers and the geography say there is still plenty of room for growth in 2019.

With a detached median sale price 8.6% less expensive than KW and that lovely proximity for many to the 401, we see things getting only hotter this year in Cambridge. Only 4% away from the milestone 500k median detached sale price, we see that happening prior to the end of Q2 2019.

A slow down in the Q1 new housing supply will only facilitate the rise upward in pricing. The already scorching 0.81 sales to new listing ratio should have nowhere to go but up.

City of Guelph

The calm after the storm. It’s a typical Guelph thing.

As we move a full year past the up and down and flurry and resulting famine of 2017, we finally have a complete picture of the new Guelph real estate landscape. And it is exactly what we predicted it would be - back to normal.

The heavily affected perimeter areas of the city have returned to a more balanced state as sellers aligned their respective pricing strategies with buyer expectations. While sale prices may still be off high water marks by as much as 6% in some areas, demand continues
to outpace supply. The 0.84 sales to new listing ratio is still the highest in the entire region.
For those seeking a more calculated purchase, the uber-consistent Downtown Guelph market did what it usually does - it stayed a measured upward course.

Cities of Kitchener & Waterloo

The move towards a more balanced market continues.

Big picture and the correct figures to focus on, keep that in mind as you sift through the yo-yo of numbers in KW real estate. From an outside perspective, the data is difficult to be too optimistic about headed into Q1, however; a little inside knowledge is needed here. 2017 was a year that saw fire and ice, depending on where you were and when. In the end, we are left with a market that weathered a most peculiar storm in pretty darn good shape.

The negative numbers produced some positive overall results. Y/Y and Q/Q reductions in sales volume saw commensurate drops in supply as well. The end result was a year-end market with an extremely healthy 0.73 sales to new listing ratio, Y/Y increases in median sale price across all sub-markets and overall median detached sale price increase of 10.5% Y/Y.

You did good KW, you did good.

The Townships

A year to remember outside in the rural areas of the Region.

With limited sample sizes, the Township figures are always the most difficult to analyze, and especially from Q to Q. So let’s keep our focus on the Y/Y numbers and you will discover they do paint a very pretty picture.

Overall, the Townships faired very well in Q4 and in 2018 as a whole. The more volatile markets in the GTA that receive credit for significant demand to the rural areas of our Region had a very tough year, yet the effects were largely avoided. The stability and economic diversity of our Townships grabbed the spotlight.

While interest in rural property typically slows in winter months, a healthy sales to new listing ratio and continued supply constraints should keep demand and subsequently prices high into Q1 2019.

The Footnotes

Township Limitations

While we make every effort to obtain as much data as possible from a variety of sources, sometimes there just isn't enough of it to report statistically significant figures.

The Townships can often have very low totals over any individual quarter, so although we do our best to report the facts, sometimes the facts are a little light on substance.

Sales to New Listing Ratio

A real estate market never heads in just one direction. Several key factors can drastically influence the direction of the market including mortgage interest rates, employment levels/growth, investment growth, immigration and development. Separately, or in conjunction with one another, they can influence whether we are it is a buyer’s market or a seller’s market.

A buyer’s market exists when there significantly more homes for sale than there are buyers. The typical end result is a drop in median sale prices over time as homeowners adjust their expectations to the current market conditions.

A seller's market typically exists when interest rates are low are there are plenty of qualified buyers and not as many homes for sale. Buyers must react quickly and often face multiple offer situations. Prices generally rise under these circumstances.

To appropriately measure market activity, TrilliumWest uses the Sales/New Listing Ratio as much as possible. The primary purpose of this ratio is to measure the balance between market supply and demand.

  • a ratio between .40-.60 is considered a seller's market
  • a ratio of less than .40 is considered to be a buyer's market

The Archives

2018

2017 Guelph Data Reports

2016 Guelph Data Reports