Market

DATA & ANALYSIS

Dive Deeper

It's here, the most comprehensive real estate market report for the entire region - Cambridge, Guelph, Kitchener, and Waterloo. Prepared in-house, and always with maximum attention to detail to ensure the most complete data and analysis possible.

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[Download the Q3 TW Regional Report]https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5f3d56c8682ff8157bf96131/t/635708610d52e74091b36509/1666648161894/Q3_2022_TWDataReport_WEB.pdf

Archives of past reports are at the bottom of this page. Consume wisely, friends.

THE Q2 Snapshot

City of Cambridge

Better than we thought - at least that’s a W

We knew heading into Q3 that a period of volatility was at hand
across the Region, and we also believed Cambridge to perhaps be
the most susceptible to these incoming tough times. What the Q3
data actually provided was a bit of surprise - the Cambridge market
took a beating through the first half of Q3, then abruptly levelled
out, even improving in September. You could call it a good finish to
a rough ride.

With median detached sale prices sitting in that historically
comfortable range of 10-15% below neighbouring KW and Guelph
and ratios holding steady above 0.6 - we may have hit a stabilization
point in the Cambridge market. We are certainly feeling more
optimistic headed into this quarter than last, that’s for sure.

City of Guelph

We can’t handle the truth.

Historically celebrated for its consistency, its dependability, its
downright predictability - the Guelph real estate market has been
anything but the past two and a half years. The covid-induced
regionalization of the market threw shockwaves into the local
landscape and the recent bottoming out has been just as disruptive.
This has proven to be all too much for a sleepy little market with
reliability as its backbone.

In truth, some areas of town may be set to experience a little
more volatility in Q4, albeit much more predictable and subtle
than what we just went through. Ratios may drop with the outside
temperatures, but we do see detached home prices levelling out to
finish the year.

Hang in there Guelph, normalcy is set to return in the near future

Cities of Kitchener & Waterloo

Rate hikes led to straight yikes

The continuous and suppressive mortgage rate hikes of the past few
months are visually evident in the Q3 KW data. Prices have suffered
across the board, but it is the sales volumes that truly speaks, well,
volumes. The home ownership entry-level and investor darling
condos of KW were ravished by a lack of demand in Q3 as the math
just doesn’t work out as well as it used to for many would-be Buyers

Detached homes carried the load to help sale prices recover in the
latter part of Q3 and we expect this trend to continue into Q4 and
beyond. Buyers with financial portability and potentially less affected
by new rates appear to be showing greater confidence in the market
than those making a purchase with a new mortgage in tow. We will
watch this trend carefully in the coming Q’s.

The Townships

The unpredictable ride that just won’t quit.

While the active urban markets of the Region are often best viewed
as a homogenous whole, the quieter Township tallies are always
ideally viewed independently. Q3 was a perfect representation of
just that. Some big pushbacks to declining Buyer pools and some
very notable compromises to this changing market.

The Sellers in more battle-hardened markets like Puslinch and
Wilmot seem to be holding firmer to their collective front lines than
areas experiencing these massive fluctuations for the first time.
Plugged-in Buyers are likely to spot opportunity in the coming Q’s
and strike while the opportunity still exists. Either way, it may take a
few Q’s to sort out this new reality in the countryside.

The Footnotes

Township Limitations

While we make every effort to obtain as much data as possible from a variety of sources, sometimes there just isn't enough of it to report statistically significant figures.

The Townships can often have very low totals over any individual quarter, so although we do our best to report the facts, sometimes the facts are a little light on substance.

Sales to New Listing Ratio

A real estate market never heads in just one direction. Several key factors can drastically influence the direction of the market including mortgage interest rates, employment levels/growth, investment growth, immigration and development. Separately, or in conjunction with one another, they can influence whether we are it is a buyer’s market or a seller’s market.

A buyer’s market exists when there significantly more homes for sale than there are buyers. The typical end result is a drop in median sale prices over time as homeowners adjust their expectations to the current market conditions.

A seller's market typically exists when interest rates are low are there are plenty of qualified buyers and not as many homes for sale. Buyers must react quickly and often face multiple offer situations. Prices generally rise under these circumstances.

To appropriately measure market activity, TrilliumWest uses the Sales/New Listing Ratio as much as possible. The primary purpose of this ratio is to measure the balance between market supply and demand.

  • a ratio between .40-.60 is considered a seller's market
  • a ratio of less than .40 is considered to be a buyer's market

The Archives

2020 Regional Reports

2021 Regional Reports

2022 Regional Reports

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