data & analysis

DIVE Deeper

It's here, the most comprehensive real estate market report for the entire region - Cambridge, Guelph, Kitchener, and Waterloo. Prepared in-house, and always with maximum attention to detail to ensure the most complete data and analysis possible.

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Download the Q4 TW Regional Report

Archives of past reports are at the bottom of this page. Consume wisely, friends.

THE Q3 Snapshot

City of Cambridge

Still have to mind that gap.

Declining sales figures tend to be the poster child for a downturn market. However, it is statistically only half of the equation. We keep a careful eye on the ever-adjusting relationship between sales volume and the number of new listings being brought to market. This replenishment rate tells the true story of market vulnerability.

While some areas across the Region kept these two dropping figures closer together for the year, Cambridge certainly did not. We see this as an important data trend to follow in early 2023. The further sale volumes and new inventory drift apart, the more unpredictable the Cambridge market will be.

A 2023 with more planned rate hikes could be a trip

City of Guelph

Up, down, backwards and sideways to get to the same spot.

Interest rates were up and buyer-interest levels were down through the last 3 Q’s of 2022. If you read any professional or amateur real estate publications, this should be a recipe for outright market ruin. But even in a notoriously slow time of year, the numbers show that simply wasn’t the case.

While Y/Y sales figures appear abysmal, the high-water marks of 2021 are a tough stick to measure against. Inventory has dropped and the ratios across the city are still firmly locked in to above balanced market conditions across almost all product types and locations. The Guelph market just seems comfortable here.

While prudence still reigns in the Region, ensure you get your real info from the locals who know - not social media.

Cities of Kitchener & Waterloo

The good, the bad and the same old.

You can look at the KW market through almost any lens you choose, it just depends on who you are and what point you are trying to make. Median sale prices are down 13.3% Y/Y, but held that to less than 1% over the last Q. Sales volumes plummeted 28% through Q4, but inventory dropped a whopping 36% as well.

Pick a stat and you can find a counterpoint to argue the opposite right now.

What we see, miraculously, is consistency amongst the chaos in the KW market. Even in such up and down, bad and good, and off and on times - the KW market has found a way to end the year with statistical consistency. It has been a different journey for different people, but the numbers tell a familiar tale in KW real estate.

The Townships

Be honest, is this what you thought would happen?

We’ll go first - our answer would be ‘yes’ in some cases and ‘no’ in others. The post-covid market-cooling efforts so far have hit the Townships in a largely predictable fashion. Q’s 2 and 3 were adjustment periods filled with hype and hysteria, but Q4 was all about common sense and sustainability. We predicted this more measured return would happen, just not as quickly as it seems to have. So far.

Country property is slow to build and even slower to develop. It is also typically for those with deeper pockets and seeking a very particular lifestyle. These characteristics allowed the markets outside the city to return to a more balanced world in Q4.

Will it stay this way in 2023? Yet to see, but we wouldn’t bet against the resiliency of these historically under-built and ever-desired markets. Simple as that.

THE Footnotes

Township Limitations

While we make every effort to obtain as much data as possible from a variety of sources, sometimes there just isn't enough of it to report statistically significant figures.

The Townships can often have very low totals over any individual quarter, so although we do our best to report the facts, sometimes the facts are a little light on substance.

Sales to New Listing Ratio

A real estate market never heads in just one direction. Several key factors can drastically influence the direction of the market including mortgage interest rates, employment levels/growth, investment growth, immigration and development. Separately, or in conjunction with one another, they can influence whether we are it is a buyer’s market or a seller’s market.

A buyer’s market exists when there significantly more homes for sale than there are buyers. The typical end result is a drop in median sale prices over time as homeowners adjust their expectations to the current market conditions.

A seller's market typically exists when interest rates are low are there are plenty of qualified buyers and not as many homes for sale. Buyers must react quickly and often face multiple offer situations. Prices generally rise under these circumstances.

To appropriately measure market activity, TrilliumWest uses the Sales/New Listing Ratio as much as possible. The primary purpose of this ratio is to measure the balance between market supply and demand.

  • a ratio between .40-.60 is considered a seller's market
  • a ratio of less than .40 is considered to be a buyer's market

The Archives - 2022 Regional Reports

The Archives - 2021 Regional Reports

The Archives - 2020 Regional Reports

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